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| Backtesting Αξίας σε Κίνδυνο (VaR)× | Μοντέλο GARCH (Πρόβλεψη Μεταβλητότητας)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Πεδίο≠ | Χρηματοοικονομικά | Οικονομετρία |
| Οικογένεια | Regression model | Regression model |
| Έτος προέλευσης≠ | 1998 | 1986 |
| Δημιουργός≠ | Kupiec (1995); Christoffersen (1998); Engle & Manganelli (DQ test) | Tim Bollerslev |
| Τύπος≠ | Statistical hypothesis tests on VaR violation sequences | Conditional volatility model |
| Θεμελιώδης πηγή≠ | Kupiec, P. H. (1995). Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Measurement Models. The Journal of Derivatives, 3(2), 73-84. DOI ↗ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327. DOI ↗ |
| Εναλλακτικές ονομασίες≠ | VaR backtest, Kupiec test, Christoffersen test, Dynamic Quantile test | GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini) |
| Συναφείς≠ | 3 | 5 |
| Σύνοψη≠ | VaR backtesting is a family of statistical tests that validate a risk model by comparing its Value-at-Risk forecasts against realised losses. It builds on Kupiec's (1995) unconditional coverage test, Christoffersen's (1998) conditional coverage test, and the Engle-Manganelli Dynamic Quantile (DQ) test. | The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series. |
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