Methoden vergleichen

	SARIMAX	Zustandsraummodell (Kalman-Filter)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2015	1990
Urheber	Box & Jenkins (ARIMA framework); SARIMAX extension with exogenous regressors	Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter
Typ	Seasonal time-series regression model	State space time series model
Wegweisende Quelle	Hyndman, R. J. & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: Principles and Practice (3rd ed.). OTexts.	Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press.
Aliasnamen	seasonal ARIMA with exogenous variables, SARIMA with regressors, ARIMAX, SARIMAX — Dışsal Değişkenli Mevsimsel ARIMA	state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter)
Verwandt	4	4
Zusammenfassung	SARIMAX extends the seasonal ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model by adding exogenous explanatory variables, so it can capture the effect of holidays, economic indicators, or policy variables on a time series. It combines non-seasonal and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average dynamics with external regressors, and is estimated by maximum likelihood in state-space form.	A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases.