Methoden vergleichen

	Robuster GARCH-Modell	ARCH-Modell (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)	EGARCH-Modell (Exponential GARCH)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1986–2013	1982	1991
Urheber	Boudt, Danielsson & Laurent (robust extensions); Bollerslev (standard GARCH, 1986)	Robert F. Engle	Daniel B. Nelson
Typ	Volatility model	Conditional volatility model	Volatility / conditional variance model
Wegweisende Quelle	Boudt, K., Danielsson, J., & Laurent, S. (2013). Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), 244–257.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370.
Aliasnamen	Robust GARCH, outlier-robust GARCH, heavy-tail GARCH, contamination-robust volatility model	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model	Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH
Verwandt	5	6	6
Zusammenfassung	The Robust GARCH model extends the classical GARCH framework to handle outliers and heavy-tailed innovations that commonly appear in financial return series. By down-weighting extreme observations through a robust innovation term, it produces more reliable volatility forecasts when data contain jumps, crises, or other anomalies that would otherwise distort standard GARCH estimates.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.	The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets.