Methoden vergleichen

	Robuste Kausale Auswirkungsanalyse	Analyse von unterbrochenen Zeitreihen (Interrupted Time Series, ITS)
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Kausale Inferenz
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2015	2002
Urheber	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (foundational CausalImpact framework)	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
Typ	Bayesian causal inference with robustness validation	Quasi-experimental segmented regression
Wegweisende Quelle	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
Aliasnamen	robust CausalImpact, sensitivity-augmented causal impact, causal impact with robustness checks, robust BSTS causal inference	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
Verwandt	5	5
Zusammenfassung	Robust Causal Impact Analysis extends the Bayesian structural time-series CausalImpact framework (Brodersen et al., 2015) by embedding systematic robustness checks — in-time placebo tests, in-space placebo controls, covariate sensitivity analysis, and prior sensitivity assessments — to verify that a detected intervention effect is genuine and not an artifact of model choices or coincidental data patterns.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.