Methoden vergleichen

	Methode der kleinsten Quadrate (OLS)	Die Theta-Methode
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2019	2000
Urheber	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares	Assimakopoulos & Nikolopoulos
Typ	Linear regression	Univariate time-series forecasting model
Wegweisende Quelle	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860	Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 521-530.
Aliasnamen	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu	theta model, theta forecasting, Theta Yöntemi — M3 Tahmin Yarışması Birincisi
Verwandt	5	4
Zusammenfassung	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).	The Theta Method is a univariate time-series forecasting model introduced by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos in 2000. It decomposes a series into two theta lines that capture its long-run trend and its short-run dynamics, forecasts each line separately, and combines them by a weighted average. Its simplicity and accuracy made it the winner of the M3 forecasting competition.