Methoden vergleichen

	Analyse von unterbrochenen Zeitreihen (Interrupted Time Series, ITS)	Markov-Kette Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Bayes-Statistik
Familie	Regression model	Bayesian methods
Entstehungsjahr	2002	—
Urheber	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)	—
Typ	Quasi-experimental segmented regression	Posterior sampling algorithm
Wegweisende Quelle	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955
Aliasnamen	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi	markov chain monte carlo, MCMC sampling, MCMC (Markov Zinciri Monte Carlo)
Verwandt	5	3
Zusammenfassung	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.	Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a family of computational algorithms for sampling from complex probability distributions, most commonly the posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian inference. Rather than computing posteriors analytically — which is rarely possible for realistic models — MCMC constructs a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the target posterior and draws dependent samples from it, enabling full probabilistic inference for virtually any model.