Methoden vergleichen

	GARCH-Modell (Volatilitätsvorhersage)	SARIMA-Modell
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1986	1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised)
Urheber	Tim Bollerslev	Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel
Typ	Conditional volatility model	Seasonal time series model
Wegweisende Quelle	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744
Aliasnamen	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)	SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component
Verwandt	5	5
Zusammenfassung	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.	SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics.