Methoden vergleichen

	ETS: Fehler, Trend, Saisonale Exponentielle Glättung	Methode der kleinsten Quadrate (OLS)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2008	2019
Urheber	Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework)	Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares
Typ	Exponential smoothing state space model	Linear regression
Wegweisende Quelle	Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer.	Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860
Aliasnamen	exponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel Düzleştirme	ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu
Verwandt	5	5
Zusammenfassung	ETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods.	Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).