Methoden vergleichen

	Deterministische Systemdynamik	Stochastische Systemdynamik
Fachgebiet	Simulation	Simulation
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1961	1980s–2000s
Urheber	Jay W. Forrester	Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers
Typ	Continuous feedback-loop simulation	Continuous stochastic simulation
Wegweisende Quelle	Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. ISBN: 9780262560221	Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
Aliasnamen	Deterministic SD, Classical System Dynamics, Continuous Simulation SD, Forrester System Dynamics	SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics
Verwandt	5	5
Zusammenfassung	Deterministic System Dynamics is the classical form of System Dynamics introduced by Jay Forrester in 1961, using fixed (non-probabilistic) ordinary differential equations to simulate stock-and-flow structures and feedback loops over time. All model parameters and relationships are specified as single-valued constants or deterministic functions, yielding a single trajectory for each simulation run. It is widely used in policy analysis, business strategy, ecology, and public health modeling.	Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios.