Methoden vergleichen

	Deterministische Szenarioanalyse	Deterministische Sensitivitätsanalyse
Fachgebiet	Simulation	Simulation
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1967	1950s–1970s (formalized)
Urheber	Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (RAND Corporation / Hudson Institute)	Saltelli, A. et al.; widely formalized across operations research and health economics
Typ	Exploratory planning and decision-support framework	Parameter variation / robustness testing
Wegweisende Quelle	Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. Macmillan, New York. ISBN: 9780025604407	Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F., & Ratto, M. (2004). Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. ISBN: 9780470870938
Aliasnamen	DSA, Fixed-Input Scenario Analysis, Classical Scenario Analysis, Deterministic What-If Analysis	DSA, One-Way Sensitivity Analysis, Tornado Diagram Analysis, Parametric Sensitivity Analysis
Verwandt	5	2
Zusammenfassung	Deterministic Scenario Analysis (DSA) is a structured planning method in which analysts construct a finite set of internally consistent future scenarios, each defined by fixed, precisely specified parameter values rather than probability distributions. By running a model or calculation under each scenario's fixed inputs, decision-makers can map how outcomes diverge across plausible futures and stress-test strategies without requiring full probabilistic characterization of uncertainty.	Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis (DSA) tests how model outputs change when individual or combined input parameters are varied across plausible ranges, one at a time or in structured combinations, without invoking probabilistic sampling. It is the standard approach in economic modeling, decision trees, and mathematical programming to identify which parameters drive conclusions and to demonstrate model robustness to regulators, reviewers, and stakeholders.