Methoden vergleichen

	Kontrafaktische Wirkungsanalyse in der Bildungsforschung	Instrumentalvariablen-Methode (IV) zur Kausalinferenz
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Gesundheitsökonomie
Familie	Regression model	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	2000s–2010s	1990s (modern applications)
Urheber	Blundell & Costa Dias; formalized for EU education policy by the European Commission Joint Research Centre	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
Typ	Quasi-experimental causal inference framework	Method
Wegweisende Quelle	Blundell, R., & Costa Dias, M. (2002). Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics. Portuguese Economic Journal, 1(2), 91-115.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Aliasnamen	CIE in education, counterfactual program evaluation, causal impact evaluation, education policy impact evaluation	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
Verwandt	5	3
Zusammenfassung	Counterfactual impact evaluation (CIE) is the systematic application of causal inference designs — such as difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, matching, and instrumental variables — to measure the genuine effect of education programs, policies, or interventions by constructing a credible counterfactual: what would have happened to participants had they not been treated.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.