Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Scenario Analysis	Stochastische Szenarioanalyse
Fachgebiet	Simulation	Simulation
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	2000s	1955–1980s
Urheber	Developed iteratively across Bayesian statistics and scenario planning communities; formalized in risk and decision analysis (Aven, Lempert et al., 2000s)	Dantzig, G. B.; Birge, J. R.; and others in stochastic programming tradition
Typ	Probabilistic hybrid — Bayesian inference integrated with structured scenario analysis	Probabilistic scenario enumeration and evaluation
Wegweisende Quelle	Aven, T., & Reniers, G. (2013). How to define and interpret a probability in a risk and safety setting. Safety Science, 51(1), 223–231.	Birge, J. R., Louveaux, F. (2011). Introduction to Stochastic Programming (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 9781461402374
Aliasnamen	BSA, Bayesian scenario planning, probabilistic scenario analysis, Bayesian-weighted scenario analysis	Probabilistic Scenario Analysis, SSA, Stochastic What-If Analysis, Monte Carlo Scenario Analysis
Verwandt	5	4
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian Scenario Analysis (BSA) combines structured scenario planning with Bayesian probability theory, assigning explicit prior probabilities to alternative futures and updating them as new evidence or expert judgments become available. The result is a probability-weighted distribution of outcomes across scenarios rather than a set of equally-weighted or arbitrarily-weighted futures.	Stochastic Scenario Analysis evaluates a system or decision across multiple explicitly defined scenarios, each assigned a probability of occurrence. Unlike deterministic scenario analysis, it propagates uncertainty through probability distributions and computes expected outcomes, variance, and risk metrics across the scenario space, giving decision-makers a structured view of what could happen and how likely each outcome is.