Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Scenario Analysis	Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis
Fachgebiet	Simulation	Simulation
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	2000s	1984–1994
Urheber	Developed iteratively across Bayesian statistics and scenario planning communities; formalized in risk and decision analysis (Aven, Lempert et al., 2000s)	Berger, J. O. (Bayesian robustness); Saltelli et al. (global SA integration)
Typ	Probabilistic hybrid — Bayesian inference integrated with structured scenario analysis	Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity quantification
Wegweisende Quelle	Aven, T., & Reniers, G. (2013). How to define and interpret a probability in a risk and safety setting. Safety Science, 51(1), 223–231.	Berger, J. O. (1994). An overview of robust Bayesian analysis. Test, 3(1), 5–124.
Aliasnamen	BSA, Bayesian scenario planning, probabilistic scenario analysis, Bayesian-weighted scenario analysis	BSA, Bayesian SA, Bayesian robustness analysis, prior sensitivity analysis
Verwandt	5	5
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian Scenario Analysis (BSA) combines structured scenario planning with Bayesian probability theory, assigning explicit prior probabilities to alternative futures and updating them as new evidence or expert judgments become available. The result is a probability-weighted distribution of outcomes across scenarios rather than a set of equally-weighted or arbitrarily-weighted futures.	Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis (BSA) combines Bayesian inference with sensitivity analysis to systematically quantify how uncertain model inputs — expressed as prior probability distributions — propagate through a model and influence outputs. It identifies which parameters most drive output variability, supporting robust conclusions under genuine uncertainty.