Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Phase-II-Klinische Studie	Dosis-Wirkungs-Analyse
Fachgebiet	Epidemiologie	Epidemiologie
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1990s (Thall & Simon 1994; Berry 1985–2006)	Conceptual roots 16th century; modern epidemiological application mid-20th century
Urheber	Peter Thall, Richard Simon, Donald Berry (key contributors)	Paracelsus (conceptual foundation); formalized by John Snow and later Bradford Hill
Typ	Interventional clinical trial design	Quantitative analytical method
Wegweisende Quelle	Thall, P. F., & Simon, R. (1994). Practical Bayesian guidelines for phase IIB clinical trials. Biometrics, 50(2), 337–349.	Rothman, K. J., Greenland, S., & Lash, T. L. (2008). Modern Epidemiology (3rd ed.). Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. ISBN: 978-0781755641
Aliasnamen	Bayesian phase 2 trial, Bayesian single-arm phase II study, Bayesian early-phase efficacy trial, Bayes phase II	exposure-response analysis, concentration-response modeling, dose-response modeling, DRA
Verwandt	6	4
Zusammenfassung	A Bayesian Phase II clinical trial applies Bayesian statistical inference to the standard Phase II objective of evaluating whether an experimental treatment shows sufficient early-phase efficacy to justify progression to a Phase III trial. By combining prior information with accumulating trial data, it enables principled interim monitoring, flexible stopping rules, and updated probability statements about treatment effect — all without the multiple-testing penalties that burden frequentist sequential designs.	Dose-response analysis quantifies the relationship between the magnitude of an exposure (the dose) and the probability or rate of an outcome (the response). It is a core analytical strategy in epidemiology and toxicology, providing evidence that increasing exposure systematically increases — or decreases — the risk of disease. A demonstrated dose-response gradient is one of Bradford Hill's classic criteria supporting causal inference.