Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Ex Post Facto Design	Propensity Score Matching
Fachgebiet	Forschungsdesign	Forschungsstatistik
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1964 (Kerlinger ex post facto); Bayesian integration from 1990s–2000s onward	1983
Urheber	Frederick N. Kerlinger (ex post facto framework); Bayesian extension draws on Laplace and modern Bayesian statistics	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
Typ	Quantitative observational research design with Bayesian inference	Method
Wegweisende Quelle	Kerlinger, F. N. (1973). Foundations of Behavioral Research (2nd ed.). Holt, Rinehart and Winston.	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
Aliasnamen	Bayesian causal-comparative design, Bayesian after-the-fact design, Bayesian observational causal design, Bayesian retrospective causal study	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
Verwandt	5	3
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian ex post facto design investigates possible causal relationships among variables that have already occurred, without researcher manipulation of those variables, and quantifies uncertainty about those relationships using Bayesian statistical inference. The researcher selects groups that differ on an outcome or a presumed cause after the fact, then uses prior knowledge and observed data together — via Bayes' theorem — to estimate credible effect sizes, group differences, or predictors.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.