Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Difference-in-Differences	Synthetische Kontrollmethode (SCM)
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Kausale Inferenz
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2015-2023	2003–2010
Urheber	Li & Marchand (formal Bayesian DiD framework); Brodersen et al. (Bayesian causal inference in time series)	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)
Typ	Bayesian causal inference / panel regression	Quasi-experimental causal inference
Wegweisende Quelle	Li, F., & Marchand, J. (2023). Bayesian inference for difference-in-differences. Econometrics Journal, 26(3), 509-529.	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
Aliasnamen	Bayesian DiD, Bayes DiD, Bayesian diff-in-diff, Bayesian panel causal estimator	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method
Verwandt	5	4
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian Difference-in-Differences applies Bayesian statistical inference to the classic DiD design, replacing frequentist point estimates with full posterior distributions over the treatment effect. This yields not only an estimate of the causal effect but also a coherent probability statement about its magnitude and uncertainty, making it especially useful when sample sizes are modest or informative prior knowledge is available.	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.