Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian ARCH-Modell	DCC-GARCH-Modell (Dynamic Conditional Correlation)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1982 (ARCH); 1989 (Bayesian estimation)	2002
Urheber	Robert F. Engle (ARCH, 1982); Bayesian treatment: John Geweke (1989)	Robert F. Engle
Typ	Volatility model with Bayesian inference	Multivariate volatility model
Wegweisende Quelle	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.	Engle, R. F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350.
Aliasnamen	Bayesian ARCH, ARCH with Bayesian estimation, Bayesian conditional heteroskedasticity model, B-ARCH	DCC-GARCH, Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH, Engle DCC model, multivariate DCC
Verwandt	6	5
Zusammenfassung	The Bayesian ARCH model estimates Engle's Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification within a Bayesian framework. Instead of maximising a likelihood, it combines a prior distribution over the volatility parameters with the data likelihood to obtain a full posterior distribution, providing richer uncertainty quantification than classical maximum-likelihood ARCH.	The DCC-GARCH model, introduced by Engle (2002), extends univariate GARCH to capture time-varying correlations between multiple financial time series. It decomposes the multivariate conditional covariance matrix into individual volatility processes and a dynamic correlation matrix, allowing correlations to fluctuate over time while remaining computationally tractable even with many series.