Methoden vergleichen
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| Autoregressives Modell (AR)× | ARIMA-Modell (Autoregressives integriertes gleitendes Durchschnittsmodell)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet | Ökonometrie | Ökonometrie |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 1970s (popularised 1976) | 1970 |
| Urheber≠ | George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins | George Box and Gwilym Jenkins |
| Typ≠ | Time series model | Time series forecasting model |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043 | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. link ↗ |
| Aliasnamen | AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process | ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q) |
| Verwandt | 6 | 6 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series. | The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics. |
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