Methoden vergleichen

	ARIMA-Modell (Autoregressives integriertes gleitendes Durchschnittsmodell)	Nichtlineares ARDL (NARDL)-Modell
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1970	2014
Urheber	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	Shin, Yu & Greenwood-Nimmo
Typ	Time series forecasting model	Nonlinear cointegration model
Wegweisende Quelle	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (pp. 281–314). Springer.
Aliasnamen	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	NARDL, nonlinear bounds test, asymmetric ARDL, asymmetric cointegration model
Verwandt	6	5
Zusammenfassung	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model extends the linear ARDL bounds-testing framework to allow asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships. By decomposing the regressor into cumulative positive and negative partial sums, it tests whether increases and decreases in a variable exert different effects on the outcome — a feature especially relevant in financial and energy economics where positive and negative shocks rarely cancel out symmetrically.