Methoden vergleichen

	ARIMA-Modell (Autoregressives integriertes gleitendes Durchschnittsmodell)	EGARCH-Modell (Exponential GARCH)	GARCH-Modell (Volatilitätsvorhersage)
Fachgebiet	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie	Ökonometrie
Familie	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1970	1991	1986
Urheber	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins	Daniel B. Nelson	Tim Bollerslev
Typ	Time series forecasting model	Volatility / conditional variance model	Conditional volatility model
Wegweisende Quelle	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–370.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
Aliasnamen	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)	Exponential GARCH, EGARCH, Nelson EGARCH, log-GARCH	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
Verwandt	6	6	5
Zusammenfassung	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.	The Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, introduced by Nelson (1991), extends the standard GARCH framework by modelling the logarithm of conditional variance. This ensures variance is always positive without parameter constraints and, crucially, allows negative and positive shocks to have asymmetric effects on volatility — capturing the well-known leverage effect in financial markets.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.