Population Viability Analysis
Population Viability Analysis (PVA), introduced by Shaffer (1981), estimates the probability that a population will persist over a given time period under specified conditions. PVA combines demographic models (Leslie matrices, IPMs) with stochastic simulation to project population trajectories, quantifying extinction risk. This allows conservation planners to assess whether a population will likely persist, evaluate management scenarios, and estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size for long-term persistence. PVA is a decision-support tool, not a precise predictor.
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- Shaffer, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience, 31(2), 131-134. · DOI 10.2307/1308256
- Morris, W. F., Blakesley, D., Bruna, M. E., et al. (2002). A practical handbook for population viability analysis. NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia. · URL
- Ralls, K., Ballou, J. D., & Templeton, A. R. (1988). Estimates of lethal equivalents and the cost of inbreeding in mammals. Conservation Biology, 2(2), 185-193. · DOI 10.1111/j.1523-1739.1988.tb00169.x
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