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Models de migració (empeny-tira / multiregional)×Projecció per Cohorts i Components×Model de Radiació de Mobilitat i Migració×Models d'interacció espacial (de gravetat)×
CampDemografiaDemografiaAnàlisi espacialAnàlisi espacial
FamíliaRegression modelProcess / pipelineRegression modelRegression model
Any d'origen1966200120121971
Autor originalEverett LeePreston, Heuveline & GuillotFilippo Simini et al.Alan Wilson (entropy-maximizing family)
TipusTheoretical-quantitative migration frameworkDemographic projection pipelineParameter-free spatial interaction modelModel of flows between spatial origins and destinations
Font seminalLee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. DOI ↗Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2Simini, F., González, M. C., Maritan, A., & Barabási, A.-L. (2012). A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature, 484, 96–100. DOI ↗Wilson, A. G. (1971). A family of spatial interaction models, and associated developments. Environment and Planning A, 3(1), 1–32. DOI ↗
ÀliesPush-Pull Migration Theory, Multiregional Migration Model, Lee Migration Framework, Göç ModelleriCohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen ProjeksiyonuRadiation Law of Human Mobility, Parameter-free Mobility Model, Simini Radiation Model, Radyasyon Modeligravity model, spatial interaction model, competing destinations model, mekânsal etkileşim modeli
Relacionats3334
ResumMigration models are quantitative frameworks for explaining and forecasting population movement between geographic units. Lee's (1966) push-pull theory classifies factors at origin and destination into positive and negative forces, modulated by intervening obstacles. Widely used by demographers, regional planners, and policy researchers to project labor mobility, refugee flows, and urbanization trends across national and subnational geographies.Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.The Radiation Model, introduced by Simini et al. in 2012, is a parameter-free model for predicting human mobility and migration flows between geographic locations. Drawing an analogy from radiation physics, it predicts trip volumes based solely on population sizes at origin and destination, and the intervening population within the circle connecting them. It has been widely applied to commuting flows, migration, and epidemic spreading.Spatial interaction models predict the volume of flows — migrants, commuters, shoppers, trade, trips — between origins and destinations as a function of the size of each place and the distance or cost separating them. By analogy to Newton's gravity, interaction rises with the 'mass' of origin and destination and falls with separation, and Wilson's 1971 entropy-maximizing family put these models on a rigorous footing for transport, migration, and retail analysis.
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ScholarGateCompara mètodes: Migration Models · Cohort-Component Projection · Radiation Model · Spatial Interaction Model. Recuperat el 2026-06-17 de https://scholargate.app/ca/compare