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Съотношение на правдоподобие във форензиката×Атрибуция на авторството (стилометрия)×Тест с Байесов фактор×Байесовско заключение×
ОбластСъдебна експертизаИзвличане на текстБейсови методиСтатистика
СемействоRegression modelMachine learningBayesian methodsBayesian methods
Година на възникване2004200919611763
СъздателColin Aitken & Franco TaroniMosteller & Wallace; StamatatosHarold JeffreysThomas Bayes; Pierre-Simon Laplace
ТипBayesian evidence evaluation modelSupervised stylometric classificationBayesian hypothesis comparisonProbabilistic inference paradigm
Основополагащ източникAitken, C. G. G., & Taroni, F. (2004). Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists (2nd ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-0-470-84367-3Stamatatos, E. (2009). A survey of modern authorship attribution methods. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 60(3), 538–556. DOI ↗Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of Probability (3rd ed.). Clarendon Press / Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0198503682Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418. link ↗
Други названияBayes Factor in Forensics, Forensic Evidence Weight, LR-Based Forensic Evaluation, Adli Olabilirlik OranıStylometry, Authorship Analysis, Yazarlık Atıfı, Authorship Identificationbayes factor, BF10, Bayesian hypothesis test, Bayes Faktörü — Hipotez TestiBayes inference, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian updating, posterior inference
Свързани3333
РезюмеThe Forensic Likelihood Ratio (LR) is a Bayesian framework for quantifying the weight of forensic evidence relative to two competing propositions — typically the prosecution and defence hypotheses. Formally developed and systematised by Colin Aitken and Franco Taroni in their 2004 Wiley monograph, the LR expresses how much more probable the observed evidence is under one hypothesis than under the other, providing the court with a single, interpretable number that separates the scientist's role from the fact-finder's role.Authorship attribution is the task of identifying the most probable author of an anonymous or disputed text by analysing its stylistic fingerprint. Rooted in the statistical work of Mosteller and Wallace on the Federalist Papers (1964), the field was systematically surveyed and formalised by Stamatatos (2009), who catalogued feature sets ranging from character n-grams and function-word frequencies to syntactic and semantic representations used by modern machine-learning classifiers.The Bayes factor test, formalised by Harold Jeffreys in 1961, is a Bayesian method for comparing two competing hypotheses. Rather than returning a binary reject/retain verdict, it produces a continuous ratio BF₁₀ that quantifies how much more (or less) probable the data are under the alternative hypothesis H₁ than under the null hypothesis H₀.Bayesian inference is a statistical paradigm in which probability represents degrees of belief rather than long-run frequencies. It encodes prior knowledge about parameters in a prior distribution, combines that prior with the likelihood of observed data via Bayes' theorem, and produces a posterior distribution that quantifies updated uncertainty. The foundational theorem was published posthumously by Thomas Bayes in 1763 and subsequently systematized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in his 1812 Théorie analytique des probabilités.
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ScholarGateСравнение на методи: Forensic Likelihood Ratio · Authorship Attribution · Bayes Factor Test · Bayesian Inference. Извлечено на 2026-06-18 от https://scholargate.app/bg/compare