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| Бейсънов сценарен анализ× | Монте Карло симулация× | |
|---|---|---|
| Област≠ | Симулационно моделиране | Вземане на решения |
| Семейство≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Година на възникване≠ | 2000s | 1949 |
| Създател≠ | Developed iteratively across Bayesian statistics and scenario planning communities; formalized in risk and decision analysis (Aven, Lempert et al., 2000s) | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Тип≠ | Probabilistic hybrid — Bayesian inference integrated with structured scenario analysis | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Основополагащ източник≠ | Aven, T., & Reniers, G. (2013). How to define and interpret a probability in a risk and safety setting. Safety Science, 51(1), 223–231. DOI ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Други названия≠ | BSA, Bayesian scenario planning, probabilistic scenario analysis, Bayesian-weighted scenario analysis | — |
| Свързани≠ | 5 | 0 |
| Резюме≠ | Bayesian Scenario Analysis (BSA) combines structured scenario planning with Bayesian probability theory, assigning explicit prior probabilities to alternative futures and updating them as new evidence or expert judgments become available. The result is a probability-weighted distribution of outcomes across scenarios rather than a set of equally-weighted or arbitrarily-weighted futures. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
| ScholarGateНабор от данни ↗ |
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