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| نموذج ARIMA الموسمي (SARIMA)× | التنعيم الأسي الثلاثي لهولت-وينترز× | |
|---|---|---|
| المجال | الاقتصاد القياسي | الاقتصاد القياسي |
| العائلة | Regression model | Regression model |
| سنة النشأة≠ | 2015 | 1960 |
| صاحب الطريقة≠ | Box & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA) | Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters |
| النوع≠ | Seasonal time-series model | Exponential smoothing forecasting model |
| المصدر التأسيسي≠ | Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. DOI ↗ |
| الأسماء البديلة≠ | seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMA | triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme |
| ذات صلة≠ | 5 | 4 |
| الملخص≠ | SARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period. | Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series. |
| ScholarGateمجموعة البيانات ↗ |
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