قارن الطرق

	نظرية الانهيار	نموذج توزيع الخسائر
المجال	العلوم الاكتوارية	العلوم الاكتوارية
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	2010	2012
صاحب الطريقة	Filip Lundberg; Harald Cramér	Klugman, Panjer & Willmot
النوع	Stochastic risk process model	Parametric probability model
المصدر التأسيسي	Asmussen, S., & Albrecher, H. (2010). Ruin Probabilities (2nd ed.). World Scientific. ISBN: 978-981-4282-52-9	Klugman, S. A., Panjer, H. H., & Willmot, G. E. (2012). Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (4th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1-118-31532-3
الأسماء البديلة	Collective Risk Theory, Cramér-Lundberg Theory, Probability of Ruin Analysis, Hasar Süreci Çöküş Teorisi	Severity-Frequency Model, Aggregate Loss Model, Claim Size Distribution Model, Hasar Dağılımı Modeli
ذات صلة	3	3
الملخص	Ruin Theory models the stochastic surplus process of an insurance company to quantify the probability that accumulated losses eventually exceed available capital. Introduced by Filip Lundberg in his 1903 doctoral thesis and rigorously unified by Harald Cramér in 1930, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes premiums arrive at a constant rate, claims follow a compound Poisson process, and individual claim sizes are independent and identically distributed. It remains the foundational framework of collective risk theory in actuarial science.	A Loss Distribution Model is a parametric statistical framework used in actuarial science to characterise the probabilistic behaviour of insurance claim amounts and frequencies. Developed comprehensively by Klugman, Panjer, and Willmot in their foundational text Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (first edition 1998, fourth edition 2012), these models underpin premium rating, reserving, reinsurance pricing, and regulatory capital calculations across the insurance and risk-management industries.