قارن الطرق

	نموذج GARCH المتين	نموذج ARCH (الانحراف المعياري الشرطي الذاتي الانحدار)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1986–2013	1982
صاحب الطريقة	Boudt, Danielsson & Laurent (robust extensions); Bollerslev (standard GARCH, 1986)	Robert F. Engle
النوع	Volatility model	Conditional volatility model
المصدر التأسيسي	Boudt, K., Danielsson, J., & Laurent, S. (2013). Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), 244–257.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.
الأسماء البديلة	Robust GARCH, outlier-robust GARCH, heavy-tail GARCH, contamination-robust volatility model	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model
ذات صلة	5	6
الملخص	The Robust GARCH model extends the classical GARCH framework to handle outliers and heavy-tailed innovations that commonly appear in financial return series. By down-weighting extreme observations through a robust innovation term, it produces more reliable volatility forecasts when data contain jumps, crises, or other anomalies that would otherwise distort standard GARCH estimates.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.