قارن الطرق

	نموذج ARIMA القوي	انحدار الكوانتيل
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1986–1993	1978
صاحب الطريقة	Tsay (1986); Chen & Liu (1993)	Koenker & Bassett
النوع	Robust time series model	Conditional quantile regression
المصدر التأسيسي	Tsay, R. S. (1986). Time series model specification in the presence of outliers. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81(393), 132–141.	Koenker, R. & Bassett, G., Jr. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
الأسماء البديلة	robust ARIMA, outlier-resistant ARIMA, robust time series estimation, ARIMA with outlier detection	conditional quantile regression, regression quantiles, Kantil Regresyon
ذات صلة	4	5
الملخص	Robust ARIMA extends the classical ARIMA framework to detect and correct the influence of outliers and structural breaks during estimation. By jointly identifying anomalous observations and re-estimating model parameters, it produces coefficient estimates and forecasts that are far less distorted by isolated shocks or data errors than standard ARIMA.	Quantile regression models conditional quantiles of an outcome - the median, the 25th or 75th percentile, and so on - rather than the conditional mean that OLS targets. Introduced by Koenker and Bassett in 1978, it reveals how predictors act across the whole distribution, including its tails.