قارن الطرق

	Pareto/NBD Model	القيمة العمرية للعميل
المجال	التسويق	التسويق
العائلة	Regression model	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1987	1996
صاحب الطريقة	David C. Schmittlein, Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo	Robert Blattberg and John Deighton
النوع	Probabilistic buy-till-you-die model with continuous-time dropout	Financial modeling methodology
المصدر التأسيسي	Schmittlein, D. C., Morrison, D. G., & Colombo, R. (1987). Counting Your Customers: Who Are They and What Will They Do Next? Management Science, 33(1), 1-24.	Blattberg, R. C., Getz, G., & Thomas, J. S. (2001). Customer Equity: Building and Managing Relationships as Assets. Harvard Business School Press. ISBN: 978-0875847191
الأسماء البديلة	Pareto/NBD, Schmittlein-Morrison-Colombo Model, Counting Your Customers Model, SMC Model	CLV, LTV, Customer Value
ذات صلة	4	5
الملخص	The Pareto/NBD model is the foundational buy-till-you-die model of customer-base analysis, answering the question of which customers are still active and how many transactions they will make in the future from a non-contractual purchase history. Introduced by David Schmittlein, Donald Morrison and Richard Colombo in their 1987 Management Science paper "Counting Your Customers," it combines two stochastic stories: customers buy according to a Poisson process while alive, and each customer has an unobserved lifetime after which they are permanently inactive. Purchasing rates vary across customers by a gamma distribution, producing the negative binomial (NBD) for counts, and dropout rates also vary by a gamma distribution, producing a Pareto distribution of lifetimes, which gives the model its name. Unlike later discrete-dropout variants, the Pareto/NBD allows a customer to become inactive at any instant in continuous time, not only after a purchase. From only each customer's recency, frequency and tenure, the model yields a probability that the customer is still alive and an expectation of their future buying. Its main cost is computational: estimation involves Gaussian hypergeometric functions and careful numerical integration, which historically made it hard to apply.	Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is a financial metric that quantifies the total profit a company expects to generate from its relationship with a customer over the entire duration of that relationship. Developed through work by Blattberg, Getz, and Thomas in the 1990s-2000s, CLV integrates acquisition costs, purchase behavior, retention rates, and margin information to estimate the net present value of each customer.