قارن الطرق

	محاكاة مونت كارلو	تحليل الحساسية العشوائية
المجال	اتخاذ القرار	المحاكاة
العائلة	MCDM	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1949	1990s–2000s
صاحب الطريقة	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.	Saltelli, A. et al.; Claxton, K. et al. (health economics stream)
النوع	Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation	Probabilistic uncertainty quantification technique
المصدر التأسيسي	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association	Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D., Saisana, M., Tarantola, S. (2008). Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. Wiley. ISBN: 9780470059975
الأسماء البديلة	—	PSA, Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis, Stochastic SA, Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis
ذات صلة	0	5
الملخص	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.	Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) extends classical one-at-a-time sensitivity testing by representing uncertain model inputs as probability distributions and propagating them through the model via Monte Carlo sampling. The result is a full distribution of possible outputs, together with rankings of which inputs drive output variance the most — enabling robust, evidence-grounded conclusions under uncertainty.