قارن الطرق

	نموذج توزيع الخسائر	نظرية المصداقية	نظرية الانهيار
المجال	العلوم الاكتوارية	العلوم الاكتوارية	العلوم الاكتوارية
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	2012	1967	2010
صاحب الطريقة	Klugman, Panjer & Willmot	Hans Bühlmann	Filip Lundberg; Harald Cramér
النوع	Parametric probability model	Weighted linear blend of individual and collective experience	Stochastic risk process model
المصدر التأسيسي	Klugman, S. A., Panjer, H. H., & Willmot, G. E. (2012). Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (4th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1-118-31532-3	Bühlmann, H. (1967). Experience rating and credibility. ASTIN Bulletin, 4(3), 199–207.	Asmussen, S., & Albrecher, H. (2010). Ruin Probabilities (2nd ed.). World Scientific. ISBN: 978-981-4282-52-9
الأسماء البديلة	Severity-Frequency Model, Aggregate Loss Model, Claim Size Distribution Model, Hasar Dağılımı Modeli	Bühlmann Credibility, Experience Rating, Linear Credibility Estimator, Güvenilirlik Teorisi	Collective Risk Theory, Cramér-Lundberg Theory, Probability of Ruin Analysis, Hasar Süreci Çöküş Teorisi
ذات صلة	3	3	3
الملخص	A Loss Distribution Model is a parametric statistical framework used in actuarial science to characterise the probabilistic behaviour of insurance claim amounts and frequencies. Developed comprehensively by Klugman, Panjer, and Willmot in their foundational text Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (first edition 1998, fourth edition 2012), these models underpin premium rating, reserving, reinsurance pricing, and regulatory capital calculations across the insurance and risk-management industries.	Credibility Theory is an actuarial framework for estimating the pure premium of an individual risk by blending its own observed loss experience with the collective (portfolio) mean. Introduced by Hans Bühlmann in 1967, the method derives the optimal linear combination—the credibility-weighted premium—that minimises mean squared error. It extends classical experience rating to a rigorous statistical footing rooted in Bayesian and linear estimation principles.	Ruin Theory models the stochastic surplus process of an insurance company to quantify the probability that accumulated losses eventually exceed available capital. Introduced by Filip Lundberg in his 1903 doctoral thesis and rigorously unified by Harald Cramér in 1930, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes premiums arrive at a constant rate, claims follow a compound Poisson process, and individual claim sizes are independent and identically distributed. It remains the foundational framework of collective risk theory in actuarial science.