قارن الطرق

	التنعيم الأسي الثلاثي لهولت-وينترز	نموذج ARIMA (الانحدار الذاتي المتكامل للمتوسط المتحرك)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1960	2015
صاحب الطريقة	Charles C. Holt and Peter R. Winters	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)
النوع	Exponential smoothing forecasting model	Univariate time-series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021
الأسماء البديلة	triple exponential smoothing, Winters' method, Holt-Winters seasonal method, Holt-Winters Üçlü Üstel Düzleştirme	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli
ذات صلة	4	5
الملخص	Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing is a forecasting model that extends Holt's double smoothing by adding a seasonal component, introduced by Peter Winters in 1960 building on Charles Holt's work. It tracks three evolving quantities — level, trend, and season — and combines them to forecast a continuous time series.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).