Delphi Technology Forecasting
Delphi technology forecasting is the original and best-known application of the Delphi method: using iterative, anonymous rounds of expert judgment with controlled statistical feedback to forecast the timing and probability of specific technological developments. Developed at the RAND Corporation by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and colleagues, the technique was designed to harness expert opinion systematically while suppressing the social pressures of face-to-face committees — dominant personalities, bandwagon effects, and reluctance to abandon a stated position. Rather than asking a panel for a general opinion, technological Delphi asks experts to predict the year by which a well-defined development will occur, or the probability that it will occur by a given date, and then feeds back the panel's median and spread so that experts can reconsider in light of the group. Glenn and Gordon's Futures Research Methodology treats it as a foundational structured-judgment method of the field.
源记录
引文逐字复制自方法源记录。这些引文不代表任何层级的验证。
- Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. · ISBN 9780981894119
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