Delphi Method for Strategy Foresight
The Delphi method is a structured process for combining the judgments of a panel of experts on questions where hard data are scarce - long-range forecasts, emerging technologies, and strategic uncertainties - through several rounds of anonymous response and controlled feedback. Linstone and Turoff's 1975 collection The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications established the canonical design and its variants, including the policy Delphi used to explore strategic options rather than to pin down a single estimate. Rowe and Wright's 1999 International Journal of Forecasting review distilled the evidence on what makes Delphi work, identifying anonymity, iteration, controlled statistical feedback, and aggregation of the final round as the procedure's defining features. In strategy and corporate foresight, Delphi is used to forecast technology timelines, prioritize uncertainties, and build expert consensus to inform long-horizon decisions.
源记录
引文逐字复制自方法源记录。这些引文不代表任何层级的验证。
- Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. · ISBN 9780201042948
- Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(4), 353-375. · DOI 10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7
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