So sánh phương pháp

	Science Fiction Prototyping	Futures Wheel
Lĩnh vực	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
Họ	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Năm ra đời	2011	1972
Người khởi xướng	Brian David Johnson (Intel)	Jerome C. Glenn
Loại	Narrative-prototyping pipeline for technology futures	Structured brainstorming pipeline for mapping consequences of change
Công trình gốc	Johnson, B. D. (2011). Science Fiction Prototyping: Designing the Future with Science Fiction. Morgan & Claypool. ISBN: 9781608456550	Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. ISBN: 9780981894119
Tên gọi khác	SF Prototyping, SFP, Fiction-Based Prototyping, Design Fiction Prototyping	Futures Wheel Method, Implications Wheel, Consequence Wheel, Mind-Mapping the Future
Liên quan	3	3
Tóm tắt	Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) is a method, formalized by Intel futurist Brian David Johnson, for using short works of science fiction as design tools. The core idea is that a fictional narrative grounded in a real, specified science or technology can act as a 'prototype' — a way to test the human, social, and ethical implications of an innovation before it is built, and to feed what is learned back into the actual engineering and design process. Rather than treating fiction as mere entertainment or untethered speculation, SFP imposes a discipline: every story must start from a concrete scientific grounding, develop a believable world, introduce the technology, follow its consequences honestly, and end with a reflection that loops back to the science. Johnson's 2011 monograph lays out the steps and uses examples drawn from his work shaping product visions at Intel.	The futures wheel is a structured brainstorming method for thinking through the consequences of a change. Created by Jerome Glenn in 1972 and now a staple of the foresight toolkit, it writes a trend, event, or decision in the center of a page and radiates outward: spokes lead to the direct, first-order consequences; from each of those, further spokes lead to second-order consequences; and the ripple continues to third and higher orders. The visual web that results makes the cascading implications of a change tangible, surfaces indirect effects that linear thinking misses, and reveals where consequences reinforce or contradict one another. Simple enough to run on a whiteboard yet powerful enough to anchor serious foresight work, it organizes intuition about how change propagates.