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Risk Terrain Modeling (Criminology)×Routine Activity Theory×
Lĩnh vựcCriminologyCriminology
HọProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
Năm ra đời20111979
Người khởi xướngJoel Caplan & Leslie KennedyLawrence E. Cohen & Marcus Felson
LoạiSpatial risk-factor aggregation model for crime forecastingTheoretical framework for explaining the occurrence of predatory crime
Công trình gốcCaplan, J. M., Kennedy, L. W., & Miller, J. (2011). Risk terrain modeling: Brokering criminological theory and GIS methods for crime forecasting. Justice Quarterly, 28(2), 360–381. DOI ↗Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608. DOI ↗
Tên gọi khácRTM, Risk Terrain Analysis, Environmental Risk Factor Modeling, Spatial Risk Factor ModelingRAT, Routine Activities Approach, Crime Triangle Framework, Cohen-Felson Theory
Liên quan44
Tóm tắtRisk Terrain Modeling (RTM) represents crime risk as a function of the environment: it identifies the features of a landscape — bars, bus stops, vacant lots, pawn shops, schools — that attract or generate crime, maps each one's spatial influence as a separate risk layer, and combines those layers onto a raster of place to produce a relative risk surface. Introduced by Joel Caplan and Leslie Kennedy around 2011, RTM 'brokers' environmental criminology theory and GIS methods so that crime forecasting rests on the qualities of places rather than on the history of crime alone.Routine activity theory explains predatory crime not by the supply of motivated offenders but by the everyday structure of legal activities that brings offenders, targets, and the absence of guardians together in space and time. Proposed by Lawrence Cohen and Marcus Felson in 1979, it argues that crime rates can rise even when offender motivation is constant, because changes in how people work, shop, and spend leisure time alter the opportunities for crime.
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