So sánh phương pháp

	Phân tích khả năng sống sót của quần thể	Mô hình Chiếu tích phân
Lĩnh vực	Sinh thái học	Sinh thái học
Họ	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Năm ra đời	1981	2000
Người khởi xướng	Mark Shaffer	Stephen Ellner and Mark Rees
Loại	extinction risk assessment	size-structured population projection
Công trình gốc	Shaffer, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience, 31(2), 131-134.	Easterling, M. R., Ellner, S. P., & Dixon, P. M. (2000). Size-specific sensitivity: applying a new structured population model. Ecology, 81(3), 694-708.
Tên gọi khác	PVA, extinction risk, minimum viable population, MVP	IPM, continuous size structure, kernel model, size-structured population
Liên quan	4	4
Tóm tắt	Population Viability Analysis (PVA), introduced by Shaffer (1981), estimates the probability that a population will persist over a given time period under specified conditions. PVA combines demographic models (Leslie matrices, IPMs) with stochastic simulation to project population trajectories, quantifying extinction risk. This allows conservation planners to assess whether a population will likely persist, evaluate management scenarios, and estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size for long-term persistence. PVA is a decision-support tool, not a precise predictor.	Integral projection models (IPMs) are a class of structured population models that use continuous traits (size, age, height) to describe population dynamics. Introduced by Easterling and colleagues (2000) and developed extensively by Ellner, Rees, and collaborators, IPMs overcome limitations of age- or stage-structured models by treating individual traits as continuous. They use integration to project populations forward in time, making them particularly suitable for organisms with continuous size distributions or flexible developmental pathways. IPMs enable estimation of population growth rate (λ), sensitivity analysis, and projection under changing environmental conditions.