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| Phân tích Kịch bản Chính sách× | Động lực học Hệ thống Kịch bản Chính sách× | |
|---|---|---|
| Lĩnh vực | Mô phỏng | Mô phỏng |
| Họ | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Năm ra đời≠ | 1967–1990s | 1960s–1990s |
| Người khởi xướng≠ | Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD | Forrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others |
| Loại≠ | Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method | Simulation-based policy analysis |
| Công trình gốc≠ | Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗ | Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159 |
| Tên gọi khác | PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis | PSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling |
| Liên quan | 5 | 5 |
| Tóm tắt≠ | Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health. | Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation. |
| ScholarGateBộ dữ liệu ↗ |
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