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Policy Delphi×Phương pháp Delphi×
Lĩnh vựcPublic PolicyĐịnh tính
HọProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
Năm ra đời19701963
Người khởi xướngMurray TuroffNorman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation)
LoạiStructured, iterative expert-deliberation technique for policyStructured iterative expert-elicitation process
Công trình gốcTuroff, M. (1970). The design of a policy Delphi. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2(2), 149–171. DOI ↗Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. DOI ↗
Tên gọi khácPolicy Delphi Technique, Turoff Policy Delphi, Decision DelphiDelphi Yöntemi, Delphi technique, expert consensus method
Liên quan35
Tóm tắtThe policy Delphi is a structured, iterative technique for eliciting and organising informed opinion on contested policy issues. Unlike the classical Delphi, which seeks consensus on a forecast, the policy Delphi is explicitly designed to generate the strongest possible opposing positions on a policy question and to expose the full range of options, supporting arguments and disagreements among a panel of knowledgeable stakeholders. Introduced by Murray Turoff in 1970, it conducts several anonymous rounds in which participants rate policy statements on dimensions such as desirability and feasibility, see aggregated feedback and the reasoning behind divergent views, and revise their positions — surfacing structured intelligence for decision-makers rather than a forced agreement.The Delphi method is a structured, iterative survey technique developed by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer at the RAND Corporation in 1963 for eliciting and converging expert opinion on complex topics where empirical data are unavailable or insufficient. It collects independent judgements from a geographically dispersed expert panel over multiple anonymous rounds, feeding aggregated results back to participants after each round so they can revise their views in light of the group's collective position.
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