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Mô phỏng vi mô×Mô hình Logit hỗn hợp×Mô phỏng Monte Carlo×
Lĩnh vựcMô phỏngKinh tế lượngRa quyết định
HọProcess / pipelineRegression modelMCDM
Năm ra đời195720001949
Người khởi xướngGuy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projectsDaniel McFadden & Kenneth TrainMetropolis, N., Ulam, S.
LoạiPolicy simulation / computational social scienceRandom-parameters discrete choice modelRobustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
Công trình gốcO'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗Train, K. E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0-521-74738-7Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗
Tên gọi khácMikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulationRandom Parameters Logit, Mixed Multinomial Logit, Error Components Logit, Karma Logit Modeli
Liên quan530
Tóm tắtMicrosimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation.The Mixed Logit model, introduced formally by McFadden and Train (2000) and elaborated in Train (2009), is a flexible discrete choice framework that allows preference parameters to vary randomly across decision-makers. By integrating standard logit probabilities over a mixing distribution of coefficients, it overcomes the restrictive independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property and accommodates unobserved taste heterogeneity, panel data correlation, and complex substitution patterns across alternatives.MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.
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ScholarGateSo sánh phương pháp: Microsimulation · Mixed Logit · MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION. Truy cập ngày 2026-06-18 từ https://scholargate.app/vi/compare