So sánh phương pháp

	Field Anomaly Relaxation	Intuitive Logics Scenario Planning
Lĩnh vực	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
Họ	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Năm ra đời	1974	1995
Người khởi xướng	Russell Rhyne	SRI International / Royal Dutch Shell tradition; Paul J. H. Schoemaker (codification)
Loại	Morphological scenario-construction pipeline based on anomaly reduction and sequencing	Deductive scenario-construction pipeline using two critical uncertainties
Công trình gốc	Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked Problems - Social Messes: Decision Support Modelling with Morphological Analysis. Springer.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
Tên gọi khác	FAR, Field Anomaly Relaxation Method, Rhyne FAR, Sectoral Morphological Scenario Method	Intuitive Logics, 2x2 Scenario Matrix, Deductive Scenario Method, SRI Scenario Planning
Liên quan	3	3
Tóm tắt	Field anomaly relaxation (FAR) is a morphological scenario-construction method developed by Russell Rhyne in the 1970s for picturing how a whole societal or strategic system might evolve over time. It describes the situation through a small set of sectors — broad dimensions such as governance, technology, or values — each characterized by several alternative states, and arrays them as a morphological field whose combinations represent possible 'snapshots' of the system. Many of those combinations are internally inconsistent, so FAR 'relaxes' the field by removing anomalous configurations, leaving only coherent states of the world. Its distinctive final move is temporal: the surviving configurations are sequenced into plausible paths of change, producing scenarios as journeys from the present through a chain of consistent future states.	Intuitive logics is the most widely used family of scenario-planning methods, in which a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about the future is constructed deductively from a few critical uncertainties. Rooted in the practice pioneered at SRI International and at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s, and codified for strategic thinking by Paul Schoemaker in his 1995 Sloan Management Review article, the approach asks a planning team to identify the driving forces shaping a focal decision, rank them by how much they matter and how uncertain they are, and select two critical uncertainties that become the orthogonal axes of a two-by-two matrix. The four quadrants define four contrasting but coherent futures, each developed into a narrative. The aim is not to predict but to stretch managers' mental models and to stress-test strategy against a manageable spread of qualitatively different worlds.