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Ecological Fallacy Analysis×Modifiable Areal Unit Problem×
Lĩnh vựcHuman GeographyHuman Geography
HọProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
Năm ra đời19501984
Người khởi xướngWilliam S. RobinsonStan Openshaw
LoạiDiagnosis and correction of bias when inferring individual relationships from aggregate dataSource of bias and sensitivity in the analysis of spatially aggregated data
Công trình gốcRobinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. American Sociological Review, 15(3), 351–357. DOI ↗Openshaw, S. (1984). The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem. Concepts and Techniques in Modern Geography No. 38. Geo Books, Norwich. ISBN: 9780860941347
Tên gọi khácEcological Inference, Ecological Bias Analysis, Aggregation Bias AnalysisMAUP, Scale and Zoning Effect, Aggregation Problem
Liên quan44
Tóm tắtThe ecological fallacy is the error of inferring relationships among individuals from correlations measured on groups, and ecological fallacy analysis is the practice of detecting, decomposing, and correcting that bias. William Robinson's 1950 paper demonstrated the danger starkly: the correlation between literacy and immigrant status across U.S. states was strongly positive at the aggregate level yet negative at the individual level. The work shows that an association observed between area averages can be inflated, attenuated, or reversed relative to the underlying individual association, so aggregate evidence cannot be read directly as evidence about people.The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is the finding that statistical results computed on spatially aggregated data depend on the arbitrary choice of how space is divided into zones. Stan Openshaw's 1984 monograph crystallized the issue into two intertwined components — a scale effect, where results change as data are grouped into larger or smaller units, and a zoning effect, where results change when the boundaries are redrawn at a fixed scale. Because the units used in geography (census tracts, districts, grid cells) are almost always modifiable rather than natural, almost every aggregate spatial statistic is potentially an artefact of its zonation.
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