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| Mô phỏng Lựa chọn Rời rạc× | Phân tích tương quan (Conjoint Analysis)× | Mô phỏng vi mô× | Mô phỏng Monte Carlo× | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lĩnh vực≠ | Mô phỏng | Thiết kế thí nghiệm | Mô phỏng | Ra quyết định |
| Họ≠ | Process / pipeline | Hypothesis test | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Năm ra đời≠ | 1974 (McFadden's Nobel-cited logit); simulation extensions throughout 1990s–2000s | 1978 | 1957 | 1949 |
| Người khởi xướng≠ | Daniel McFadden (random utility theory); Kenneth Train (simulation methods) | Paul E. Green & V. Srinivasan | Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Loại≠ | Discrete choice modelling with Monte Carlo simulation | Decomposition-based utility estimation | Policy simulation / computational social science | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Công trình gốc≠ | Train, K.E. (2009). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗ | Green, P.E. & Srinivasan, V. (1978). Conjoint analysis in consumer research: Issues and outlook. Journal of Consumer Research, 5(2), 103–123. DOI ↗ | O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Tên gọi khác≠ | stated preference simulation, SP simulation, revealed preference modelling, Ayrık Seçim Simülasyonu (Stated Preference / SP Simulation) | CBC conjoint, choice-based conjoint, adaptive conjoint analysis, full-profile conjoint | Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation | — |
| Liên quan≠ | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Tóm tắt≠ | Discrete choice simulation is a behavioural modelling method — grounded in random utility theory formalised by Daniel McFadden in the 1970s and extended to simulation-based estimation by Kenneth Train — that estimates how individuals choose among mutually exclusive alternatives and then uses those estimated preference parameters to forecast how choice shares would shift under hypothetical policy or market scenarios. It is the dominant quantitative tool in transport demand analysis, health economics, environmental valuation, and marketing research. | Conjoint analysis is a preference-measurement technique that decomposes overall product evaluations into the separate utility values — called part-worths — that respondents assign to each attribute level. Formalised by Green and Srinivasan in their seminal 1978 Journal of Consumer Research paper, the method has become the dominant tool in marketing research and product design for quantifying what buyers truly trade off when they choose between options. | Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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