So sánh phương pháp

	Phương pháp Ước tính Dân số theo Sinh-Tử-Di cư (Cohort-Component Projection)	Lý thuyết Dân số Ổn định
Lĩnh vực	Nhân khẩu học	Nhân khẩu học
Họ	Process / pipeline	Regression model
Năm ra đời	2001	1972
Người khởi xướng	Preston, Heuveline & Guillot	Alfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale
Loại	Demographic projection pipeline	Mathematical demographic model
Công trình gốc	Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2	Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4
Tên gọi khác	Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu	Lotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi
Liên quan	3	2
Tóm tắt	Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.	Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase.