So sánh phương pháp

	Mô hình ARMA Bayes	Mô hình Vector Tự hồi quy Bayes (BVAR)
Lĩnh vực	Kinh tế lượng	Kinh tế lượng
Họ	Regression model	Regression model
Năm ra đời	1970s–1980s	1984
Người khởi xướng	Box & Jenkins (classical ARMA); Bayesian treatment developed through work of Zellner, Geweke, and others in 1970s–1980s	Doan, Litterman & Sims
Loại	Bayesian time series model	Multivariate time-series model
Công trình gốc	Geweke, J., & Meese, R. (1981). Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order. International Economic Review, 22(1), 55–70.	Doan, T., Litterman, R., & Sims, C. (1984). Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews, 3(1), 1–100.
Tên gọi khác	Bayesian ARMA, B-ARMA, Bayesian autoregressive moving average, ARMA with Bayesian inference	BVAR, Bayesian VAR, Bayesian vector autoregressive model, BVAR model
Liên quan	6	5
Tóm tắt	The Bayesian ARMA model applies Bayesian inference to the classical autoregressive moving average framework for stationary univariate time series. Rather than producing single point estimates for the AR and MA parameters, it yields full posterior distributions, naturally incorporating prior knowledge and providing coherent uncertainty quantification over forecasts and impulse responses.	The Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model extends the classical VAR framework by incorporating prior beliefs about the model coefficients. Priors — most commonly the Minnesota prior — shrink VAR coefficients toward economically sensible values, dramatically reducing overfitting and improving out-of-sample forecast accuracy even when the number of variables is large.