So sánh phương pháp

	Mô hình ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)	Dự báo Chuỗi Thời gian bằng Dự đoán Hợp thức	N-HiTS	PatchTST
Lĩnh vực	Kinh tế lượng	Kinh tế lượng	Học sâu	Học sâu
Họ	Regression model	Regression model	Machine learning	Machine learning
Năm ra đời	2015	2021	2023	2023
Người khởi xướng	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Angelopoulos & Bates (tutorial); Xu & Xie (time-series EnbPI)	Challu, C. et al.	Nie, Y. et al.
Loại	Univariate time-series model	Distribution-free prediction interval wrapper	Deep neural forecasting (hierarchical interpolation)	Transformer for time series forecasting
Công trình gốc	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Angelopoulos, A. N. & Bates, S. (2023). Conformal Prediction: A Gentle Introduction. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 16(4), 494-591.	Challu, C. et al. (2023). NHITS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting. AAAI.	Nie, Y., Nguyen, N. H., Sinthong, P. & Kalagnanam, J. (2023). A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers. ICLR.
Tên gọi khác	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	conformal prediction, distribution-free prediction intervals, EnbPI, Konformal Tahmin (Conformal Prediction — Zaman Serisi)	N-HiTS — Hiyerarşik İnterpolasyon Tahmini, NHITS, Neural Hierarchical Interpolation	PatchTST — Yama Tabanlı Zaman Serisi Transformer, patch-based time series transformer, channel-independent transformer
Liên quan	5	4	3	3
Tóm tắt	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Conformal prediction is a distribution-free wrapper that turns any point forecaster — ARIMA, a neural network, or a machine-learning model — into valid prediction intervals using only its residuals. The time-series form was popularised by Xu & Xie (2021) and the modern tutorial treatment by Angelopoulos & Bates (2023).	N-HiTS (Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting), introduced by Challu and colleagues in 2023, is a deep neural forecasting architecture that combines the hierarchical forecasts of multiple stacks operating at different sampling rates and merges them through interpolation. It extends N-BEATS to deliver markedly better accuracy on long forecast horizons.	PatchTST is a patch-based Transformer architecture for time series forecasting, introduced by Nie and colleagues in 2023, that cuts each series into overlapping patches treated as tokens and processes channels independently. It balances computational efficiency with strong accuracy on long-horizon forecasting.