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Age-Crime Curve Modeling×Hồi quy Poisson và Âm nhị thức×
Lĩnh vựcCriminologyKinh tế lượng
HọRegression modelRegression model
Năm ra đời19831998
Người khởi xướngTravis Hirschi & Michael Gottfredson; David FarringtonCameron & Trivedi (textbook treatment); Hilbe (negative binomial)
LoạiNonlinear regression modeling of the age distribution of offendingGeneralized linear model for count data
Công trình gốcHirschi, T., & Gottfredson, M. (1983). Age and the explanation of crime. American Journal of Sociology, 89(3), 552–584. DOI ↗Cameron, A. C. & Trivedi, P. K. (1998). Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗
Tên gọi khácAge-Crime Relationship Modeling, Age-Offending Curve, Aggregate Age-Crime Distribution, Crime-Age Profile Modelingcount regression, log-linear count model, negative binomial regression, Poisson / Negatif Binom Regresyon
Liên quan44
Tóm tắtAge-crime curve modeling fits statistical functions to the well-known relationship between age and offending: crime rises sharply in adolescence, peaks in the late teens or early twenties, and declines through adulthood. Brought to prominence by Hirschi and Gottfredson's 1983 claim that this curve is invariant, and elaborated by Farrington, the modeling task is to capture its characteristic skewed, single-peaked shape and to debate what it implies about the causes of crime.Poisson regression is a generalized linear model for count outcomes — events tallied as non-negative integers such as hospital admissions, accidents, or article counts. It models the log of the expected count as a linear function of the predictors, and is developed in the standard count-data treatment of Cameron and Trivedi (1998); when the counts are over-dispersed, the closely related negative binomial model (Hilbe, 2011) is preferred.
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