Порівняння методів

	Аналіз сценарних політик	Системна динаміка для аналізу політичних сценаріїв
Галузь	Імітаційне моделювання	Імітаційне моделювання
Родина	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Рік появи	1967–1990s	1960s–1990s
Автор методу	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD	Forrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others
Тип	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method	Simulation-based policy analysis
Основоположне джерело	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.	Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159
Інші назви	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis	PSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling
Пов'язані	5	5
Підсумок	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.	Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation.