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Life-Course Criminology Analysis×Group-Based Trajectory Model×
AlanCriminologyCriminology
AileProcess / pipelineRegression model
Köken yılı19931993
KökenRobert J. Sampson & John H. LaubDaniel S. Nagin & Kenneth C. Land
TürTheoretical framework and longitudinal analytic strategy for offending over the life courseFinite-mixture model of longitudinal developmental trajectories
Seminal kaynakSampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life. Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674176058Nagin, D. S., & Land, K. C. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31(3), 327–362. DOI ↗
Diğer adlarAge-Graded Theory of Informal Social Control, Sampson-Laub Life-Course Theory, Developmental Life-Course Criminology, Life-Course Theory of CrimeGBTM, Group-Based Modeling of Development, Nagin Trajectory Model, Semiparametric Group-Based Modeling
İlişkili54
ÖzetLife-course criminology analyzes both continuity and change in offending across the entire life span, anchored in Sampson and Laub's age-graded theory of informal social control. The core claim is that social bonds that emerge at different ages — strong marriages, stable employment, military service — function as informal social control that can redirect criminal trajectories, so that change is possible at any age and is not fully determined by childhood propensity.Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is a finite-mixture method that identifies clusters of individuals who follow similar developmental paths of a behavior — most famously offending — over age or time. Introduced to criminology by Daniel Nagin and Kenneth Land in 1993, it replaces the assumption of a single average trajectory with a small number of distinct latent groups, each described by its own polynomial curve and its share of the population.
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