Rekodi ya ushahidi wa mbinu

Futures Wheel

The futures wheel is a structured brainstorming method for thinking through the consequences of a change. Created by Jerome Glenn in 1972 and now a staple of the foresight toolkit, it writes a trend, event, or decision in the center of a page and radiates outward: spokes lead to the direct, first-order consequences; from each of those, further spokes lead to second-order consequences; and the ripple continues to third and higher orders. The visual web that results makes the cascading implications of a change tangible, surfaces indirect effects that linear thinking misses, and reveals where consequences reinforce or contradict one another. Simple enough to run on a whiteboard yet powerful enough to anchor serious foresight work, it organizes intuition about how change propagates.

Sources recorded, not reviewed

Rekodi ya chanzo

Nukuu zimehamishwa kwa uhalisi kutoka kwa rekodi ya chanzo cha mbinu. Hakuna uthibitisho wa kiwango cha dai unaodokezwa kutoka kwao.

Futures Wheel (Structured Brainstorming of Higher-Order Consequences)

Rekodi ya mbinu ya kiajenda · process-pipeline / futures-foresight-studies

Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. · ISBN 9780981894119

Fungua mbinu kamili

Madai yaliyotunzwa

Madai yamehifadhiwa katika daftari la ushahidi, kila moja ikiwa na tathmini yake.

Hakuna madai yaliyotunzwa bado

Mwonekano huu haubuni tathmini ya dai wakati daftari haina yoyote.

Mbinu zinazohusiana

Zilizotengenezwa kutoka kwa grafu ya mbinu na kuonyeshwa kama uhusiano uliopendekezwa na mashine — hakuna dai la ushahidi linalodokezwa.

Same method familyCausal Layered Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyManoa Alternative Futures Methodmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyThree Horizons Frameworkmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.